Need to improve OG estimate by BS

I do 15 gal batches. BS estimated OG 1.054 for the last batch using a new equipment profile and the actual OG was 1.061, I want to make BS reflect actual. How?  My volume to fermenter was lower than I wanted - 14gals instead of 15 gals. I'd like to increase a gal or so and see what the OG estimate would be but how? Adding a gallon of water will decrease the OG by how much????  How can I tweak the mash+sparge volumes in BS and see what the resulting OG estimate will be?  Thanks!

RumRiverBrewer said:

I do 15 gal batches. BS estimated OG 1.054 for the last batch using a new equipment profile and the actual OG was 1.061, I want to make BS reflect actual. How?  My volume to fermenter was lower than I wanted - 14gals instead of 15 gals. I'd like to increase a gal or so and see what the OG estimate would be but how? Adding a gallon of water will decrease the OG by how much????  How can I tweak the mash+sparge volumes in BS and see what the resulting OG estimate will be?  Thanks!

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Its normal for OG to fluctuate I normally end up usually say I target 1.050 I normally hit for example 1.054-1.056 its normal for you to get better yield than expected because of how modified malts are.

Other than that, the only real way to get accurate OG in Beersmith is to do the testing and make sure that you have your profile correct,  account for everything become consistent and use those numbers in beersmith. Each person does stuff differently and beersmith cannot account for your personal differences unless you tell it to.

RumRiverBrewer said:

Adding a gallon of water will decrease the OG by how much???? 

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There is a dilution tool in Beersmith (Tools ->Dilution Tool) that will answer this for you. Adding 1 gallon of water to 14 gallons at 1.061 will give you 15 gallons at 1.057.

To make BS reflect your actual results you need to set your efficiency and get your equipment profiles right in regard to losses and boiloff. Measure the gravity and volume at every stage of your process and you should be able to set up profiles to reflect that and get you on target. If you were high on gravity and low on volume then you should easily be able to adjust your initial volume to correct.

--GF

RumRiverBrewer said:

I want to make BS reflect actual. How?
...
How can I tweak the mash+sparge volumes in BS and see what the resulting OG estimate will be?  Thanks!

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The two fundamental elements of BeerSmith predictions are Batch Volume and Brewhouse Efficiency. The latter is different than mash efficiency because it measures the total percentage of available sugar that gets to your fermenter. Mash efficiency is just one part of that calculation.

Your batch volume is the amount of wort you expect to go into the fermenter. From there, you'd work backwards through your trub loss and boil off to get your preboil volume.

Once your losses are accurate, figure out the percentage of your batch size to the post boil volume. Multiply this by your expected mash efficiency and you will get an approximate brewhouse efficiency number. Once you update the equipment profile, you'll need to swap it into each recipe you've already created. BeerSmith stores recipes as stand alone files so that the reflect your system at that time. 

For your new equipment profile did you just pick one from the supplied list or did you enter a custom profile based on your actual equipment data? You will not get completely accurate results unless you do the latter.

Thanks @Brewfun, your post did a good job getting me on track to the solution. My equipment profile is new as the cold side of my brewing system is new and I understand it is an iterative process to get things reflecting real life in BS.  I went back into the profile I created for the batch/recipe and adjusted the losses for deadspace, etc. to be closer to actual (they were much lower than they should be) and arrived at the post volume amount I wanted in the recipe. The modifications amounted to an additional gallon or so of mash/sparge water to get to the batch size I want. The OG estimated for the recipe was still low, but I had a brewhouse efficiency set that is lower than what I've used in the past (72%) for other recipes. After bumping it up to 78% the OG in BS looks more like actual and arrives at the post boil volume I wanted.  I'll use this profile with the next recipe and tweak again as needed.  It's been years since creating a new equipment profile and I remember it taking a few brew days and noting details to get things right in BS.