If you’ve made a trip to the local homebrew store you have probably noticed that hop prices are up and many of your favorite hops simply are not available at any price. I ordered hops last week at prices over $4 per ounce for some varieties. What caused the shortage? What does it mean for the average homebrewer? When will it recover?

Causes of the Hop Shortage

The cause of the problem is threefold. First, over the last 15 years, hop acreage has declined by 50% due to a global hop glut that started in the early 1990’s. During the glut, excess hops were stored as hop extract that only recently ran out as acreage declined. Second, bad weather in Europe significantly reduced the yield of many European varieties, particularly in Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

Finally, most commercial breweries obtain their hops through multi-year contracts with large hop growers. The hop growers continue to honor these contracts during the shortage, meaning that the open market for the remaining hops has had to absorb the brunt of the hops shortage.

To make things worse, when the hop shortage began panic set in with many microbreweries and regional breweries who buy from the open market. This drove prices up several hundred percent in many cases. Hops prices jumped from a few dollars a pound to over $25 a pound for some varieties.

Home Brewers Share

Homebrewers represent a microscopic share of the overall hops market, and are at the tail end of the supply chain. As a result, the 10-15% shortage in the global market has hit homebrewers hard. 2008 will likely be a difficult year for homebrewers with many European varieties (Saaz, Hallertauer, Tettnang, Styrian Goldings) as well as other popular hops like Cascade, Centennial and Fuggles in short supply. If your favorite variety is out of stock you might want to check for appropriate substitutes from our hops list.

How Long will the Shortage Last

Though processing of the 2007 hop crops has helped winter brewers, supplies are likely to decline as the year goes on. Similarly 2009 may be a difficult year for homebrewers because it takes 2 years to add new hop acreage. However by 2010 new acreage and market forces will likely return the hop market to normal, though hop prices will likely be higher than they were during the hop glut of the last 10 years. (Ref: BYO Article)

Though some varieties will be in short supply through 2008 and 2009, and prices across the board will be higher, you will still be able to buy hops and enjoy homebrewing throughout the year. There is no need to panic. You may need to modify your favorite recipe with a suitable alternative hop, or consider a maltier style. If you have some hops on hand or find your favorite hops at a good price you should freeze the hops in an airtight barrier package and use it wisely. In either case don’t worry - sit back and enjoy a homebrew.

References

• Hop Variety Listing - Including Substitutes

• Sam Adams offers 20,000 lbs of Hops to Microbrewers
• Brewing Hops: 10 Tips for Surviving the Hops Shortage
• Brewing Hops Storage: Preserving Precious Hops
• Growing Hops in the Garden: How to Grow Beer Hops
• An Interview with Dan Listermann (of Phil’s fame)